Analyzing the Odds: Super Bowl 2011

If you’re like me you are already looking ahead to the NFL season. Here’s my take on Sportsbook’s odds for the Super Bowl.

The favorite is the Colts at 7 to 1. Not hard to figure as they are always in the mix, but they couldn’t get it done last year and I say it’s unlikely that they will be quite as good this time around. They were relatively injury free, allowing them to flirt with perfection for a second time. Will this be the year that Peyton Manning finally drops off? As a Patriots fan I’ve been waiting for this to happen, but he always seems to come out looking as good as ever. Biased as I may be, I do not think this is a good bet.

The longest odds are a tie between Cleveland, Oakland, Detroit, St. Louis, Carolina, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City. All are 100 to 1. Of these teams, the Browns are somewhat intriguing to me. They won their last 4 games of the last season, with a defense of no-names playing very well. Jerome Harrison showed flashes of greatness, including a double-take inducing 286 yard, 3 TD game against the Chiefs. (With Jamal Lewis gone, Harrison is definitely someone I would want on my fantasy team this season) Also, Josh Cribbs has replaced Dante Hall and Devin Hester as the most dangerous player in the NFL. He is the ultimate game changer. Not only can he take any punt or kickoff to the house, they use him in the wildcat to great success. All this said, I would not bet on the Browns. They will not win the Super Bowl but I do think they could be in the mix for a wild card spot as the season winds down.

But enough about the Browns. Here are some teams that I actually would bet on.

Patriots and Saints: 10 to 1. The Saints won it last year and there’s no reason they won’t be just as good this season. If you watched the Patriots with any regularity last year, you probably noticed that they really weren’t that good. The running game was not nearly as good as it was for Matt Cassel 2 years ago, the defense was pretty bad throughout, and Tom Brady just didn’t look as sharp as he’s always been. Nevertheless, they still won the division before getting absolutely embarrassed at home by a much better, much tougher Ravens team. With Brady being 2 years removed from his knee injury and a young defense that has no where to go but up, the Patriots should be back as a perennial contender to win it all.

Best Value: Houston Texans 40 to 1. Each of the last 2 seasons the Texans have been on the verge of wild card berths, only to just miss out. This season I think they definitely get in and could even challenge the Colts for the AFC South. The Texans have arguably one of the best offenses in the NFL. I think Andre Johnson is hands down the league’s best receiver and Matt Schaub very quietly led the league in passing yards last year. They definitely need more consistency out of Steve Slaton, who had a huge sophomore slump after his strong rookie season. Defensively they still have to improve, but leaders like Demeco Ryans and Mario Williams provide a solid foundation. So be like me and turn $2o into $800 on the shoulders of the Houston Texans.

Future Wager
Bet $20.00  to Win $800.00
Date	Team	Line
Odds to Win 2011 Super Bowl XLV – Arlington Texas
02/06/11	Houston Texans	40/1
20:00 ET